嘉盛集团资深分析师Tony Sycamore：11月美联储可能宣布缩表或对贵金属市场造成影响

嘉盛集团资深分析师Tony Sycamore 接受《期货日报》采访，分享对11月美联储可能宣布缩表或对贵金属市场造成的影响。Tony 预计：

1) 11月4日美联储会宣布缩表时间表，在8个月后也就是2022年年中结束这一缩表进程。市场已开始为美联储2022年9月FOMC会议前加息25BP进行定价，12月前会累计加息50BP；

2) 尽管金价此前一度突破1800美元，但如果名义债券收益率和能源价格、通胀预期攀升的进度保持一致，金价现阶段很难有较大表现；

3) 但白银情况有些许不同，它不仅是贵金属，也有工业金属属性，会受到太阳能发电和电动汽车等绿色技术需求增加的推动。如果银价没有跌破23美元的短期支撑，也没有跌破21-21.45美元的中期支撑，Tony表示继续看涨银价，希望涨势向25.70美元(200日移动均线)和26.70美元(趋势通道阻力位)之间的阻力层延伸。

Market analyst for GAIN Capital Tony Sycamore shares with China Futures Daily his insights on the imminent Fed tapering announcement and its implications on precious metals . According to Tony, 

1) On November 4th, the Fed is expected to start tapering its bond purchases, which will end some eight months later in mid-2022. The US rate curve is currently pricing a full 25bp hike by the September 2022 FOMC meeting and 50bp of hikes by December 2022, pressuring the consensus view the first tightening will not be until early 2023.

2) While nominal interest rates have moved higher, so have inflation expectations, and real yields (the interest rate adjusted for inflation and a key driver of the gold price) have remained range-bound.

3) Turning to silver, part precious metal, and part industrial metal, it sees increased demand from green technologies such as solar power generation and EVs. Providing silver does not lose short term support at $23.00 nor the band of medium-term support between $21.45 and $21.00, we are bullish silver looking for the rally to extend towards a layer of resistance between $25.70 (the 200-day moving average) and $26.70 (trend channel resistance).